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I dunno, from my experience, with junk xp pokes, it like 90% catchrate on first throw if you throwing a Great Curve Pokeball, or better. And if you grinding for xp, it take you a few days to learn how to do it if you catching a lot of the same pokemon species. First throw catches are faster than the 40 seconds, around 30sec or less, so you can actually fail quite a few throws if you always got spawns there to hit and there isn a lot of downtime.

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